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Quality of transmission estimation and short-term performance forecast of lightpaths


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Aladin, Sandra, Tran, Anh Vu Stephan, Allogba, Stéphanie et Tremblay, Christine. 2020. « Quality of transmission estimation and short-term performance forecast of lightpaths ». Journal of Lightwave Technology, vol. 38, nº 10. pp. 2806-2813.

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With ever-increasing traffic, the need more dynamic, flexible and autonomous optical networks is more important than ever. The availability of performance monitoring data makes it possible to leverage machine learning (ML) for fast quality of transmission (QoT) estimation and performance prediction of lightpaths in complex optical networks. In this work, we explore classifiers based on support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN) for QoT estimation of unestablished lightpaths. Using a synthetic knowledge base (KB), the classification accuracy of the ANN and SVM models decreased from 99%, with a complete feature set, to 85.03% and 88.52%, respectively, with a reduced feature set. We also propose a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), an Encoder-Decoder LSTM and a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models, trained with 13-month field performance data, for lightpath signal-to-noise (SNR) prediction over forecast horizons up to 4 days. Positive R2 values combined with low (< 0.285 dB) root mean square error (RMSE) indicated that the GRU model achieved slightly better predictions than the naive method for forecast horizons ranging from 1 to 96 hours, whereas the LSTM performed better over 24 to 96-hour forecast horizons. The Encoder-Decoder LSTM model achieved the lowest R2 and the highest RMSE values (0.296 dB). Additional input data will be needed to improve the prediction accuracy of the LSTM and GRU models trained with single lightpath data.

Item Type: Peer reviewed article published in a journal
Tremblay, Christine
Affiliation: Génie électrique
Date Deposited: 09 Mar 2020 14:15
Last Modified: 16 Jun 2020 20:01

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