Naeini, Saeed Saviz, Snaiki, Reda et Di Luca, Alejandro.
2026.
« Projecting hurricane risk in Atlantic Canada under climate change ».
Weather and Climate Extremes, vol. 52.
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Résumé
Atlantic Canada faces significant tropical cyclone (TC) threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood hazards is quantified from a historical baseline (1979–2014) to two future periods: a near future (2024–2059) and a far future (2060–2095). Hazard fields are constructed from large ensembles of physics-informed synthetic TC tracks, and changes are evaluated in return-period wind speeds and in inundation depth and extent, with sea-level rise included for flood projections. The second stage estimates TC risk using wind as an operational proxy for total loss, combining the simulated wind fields with exposure data and a vulnerability relationship to compute expected damages. This design clarifies how physical drivers change and how those shifts translate into loss potential without requiring fully coupled compound-loss modeling. Results indicate an intensification of wind extremes and a substantial amplification of coastal inundation, yielding higher wind-proxy risk for many coastal communities. Spatial patterns show a heterogeneous escalation of risk concentrated along exposed shorelines and urban corridors. This comprehensive analysis of both hazard evolution and proxy risk provides decision-ready evidence on where and by how much TC losses are likely to grow. The approach clarifies the link between physical drivers and loss potential, ensuring compatibility with standard wind-centric workflows used in engineering and insurance practice.
| Type de document: | Article publié dans une revue, révisé par les pairs |
|---|---|
| Chercheur(-euse): | Chercheur(-euse) Snaiki, Reda |
| Affiliation: | Génie de la construction |
| Date de dépôt: | 29 avr. 2026 15:44 |
| Dernière modification: | 22 mai 2026 20:50 |
| URI: | https://espace2.etsmtl.ca/id/eprint/33675 |
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